Regardless of the size of a business, operation and model must keep up with the time in reacting to changes and keeping up with trends. While the changes may be similar to the ones in the past but the current environment makes it distinct. Statistics from past data does little in predicting current and future outcome. On the other hand, deductive analysis applies to the latest narrative can come up with different scenarios. Scenario analysis helps to understand the risk and reward. The central premise on scenario analysis is the understanding of different scenarios to discover how chains of events cascade from existing narrative. Unwanted outcomes do not happen like magic. They are results from causes. Scenario analysis helps to understand the causes of the different scenarios. This understanding is fundamental to better business management and to derive more reliable outcome estimates.

The more details that go into a scenario, the better is the analysis. Once scenario analysis is completed, probability is assigned to it, or one may conclude that the probability for all scenario is identical.

The probability of every lottery ticket is the same even when statistically a set of numbers may be more popular, but the payout would be higher if a winning ticket contains less popular numbers.

1. Know the business - as a system of process to get tasks done when each step has a series of dependencies on people, processes and technology
2. Resolve all the 'why' and the 'unknown'
3. Risk to performance - relating risk to performance

1. Impacts to top-line and bottom-line
2. Known competitions
3. Niche lead time
4. Customer and user feedback
5. Risks

Gathering information to create a written narrative is a complicated task. Business managers can now leverage on BIZPAGE NAAAS to get it done without the hassle. Our consultants identify existing artifacts, analyze them for context and semantics, and compile them into a comprehensive narrative for analysis. It follows with walkthrough of the resulting reports for scenarios and perform scenario analysis to identify risk and rewards. Each analysis will come with hyperlinks that business executives can gain insights into the details of each possible outcome, headwind and tailwind.